Fooled by Randomness

Rollerskating around Tokyo street is very fun thing to do
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Just read Gladwell's outliner, the ran into Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". I guess there is all fate. If I have read Fooled by Randomness, I guess I would have laughed by way through the outliner. The 1000 hour rule, the connections, and all other factors deciding why some people outstand others in any field... are all becoming objects of my skeptism.

According to Taleb, there is no prove why you should put your money to a fund manager because of his track record of not lossing money (when time is good, he is even making money) for the past 10 years. Why is he famous? Because no one can be bothered to study the 99.9% of failing fund managers. There is really no enough statistical data to support any pricing models or money making strategies.

In financial market, randomness is the king. The book "Millionaires next door" depicts frugal people saved money and invested wisely, they eventually become rich. That's all pure luck! What if they bought the loser stocks that went under and, thus, losing all their investment?

It's depressing, all our work in financial market has been depending on luck.